A developing disturbance in the eastern Pacific is expected to become Tropical Storm Alvin as early as Wednesday, marking the first tropical storm of the Western Hemisphere in 2025.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the system has a high chance of tropical development and is located approximately 500 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Computer forecast models suggest that future-Alvin will continue moving west-northwest over the next day or two before turning northward.
Potential Threats
Although the system is currently several hundred miles south of the Mexican Pacific Coast, it may pose a threat to parts of Mexico in the coming days. The majority of computer models predict that Alvin will move into a more hostile environment characterized by wind shear, cooler water, and drier air around Saturday.
There are two possible scenarios for the system’s future:
1. Fizzle offshore: In this scenario, Alvin would weaken and dissipate in the open ocean without impacting land.
2. Curl northeastward toward Mexico: If the system survives its expected encounter with hostile environmental conditions, it may curl northeastward toward a part of the Mexican coast in a weakened state around Saturday.
Impacts
Regardless of which scenario plays out, parts of Mexico’s Pacific Coast west of Acapulco can expect high surf and rip currents later this week. Additionally, bands of locally heavy rain are forecasted to affect areas near the coast generally to the north and east of the system’s track, with flash flooding and mudslides possible.
Regional Impacts
The remnants of Tropical Storm Alvin may also contribute to an uptick in thunderstorms over the Southwest U.S. this weekend, potentially leading to heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season. While many storms form in the eastern Pacific and dissipate in the open ocean, some have struck land in recent years, including Category 5 Hurricane Otis in Acapulco, Mexico.
As the season begins, residents and visitors alike should remain vigilant and monitor official forecasts for updates on Tropical Storm Alvin’s potential impacts.
Source: Weather
