On October 22, 2024, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released data on the migration trends at the U.S.-Mexico border during the 2024 fiscal year, which ended on September 30. The report highlights a year marked by crackdowns on migrants attempting to cross into the United States, resulting in a temporary reduction in the number of people in CBP’s custody.
According to the data, there were 2,135,005 encounters between October 2023 and September 2024, which is the smallest number since 2021 and a 14% decrease from fiscal 2023. The Border Patrol’s apprehensions of migrants dropped by 25% from 2023, from 2,045,838 to 1,530,523.
The decline in migration is attributed to two ongoing crackdowns: Mexico’s efforts to block migrants transiting its territory and the Biden administration’s asylum curbs, which have made it more difficult for people to access the U.S. asylum system between ports of entry when numbers are high.
Notably, the nationalities most frequently encountered at the border in 2024 were Mexico (-9% from 2023), Venezuela (-2%), Guatemala (-7%), Cuba (+6%), Honduras (-34%), Colombia (-20%), Ecuador (+5%), Haiti (+16%), El Salvador (-12%), and China (+57%).
However, the crackdowns have come with a human cost. Tens of thousands of people are stranded in Mexico, and numerous reports from non-governmental organizations and media highlight mounting abuses against deported individuals, including rough treatment by U.S. and Mexican officials, family separations, kidnappings for ransom, and denial of urgent health care.
The lull in migration is expected to be temporary, as root causes persist and some nationalities and demographics are less likely to be deported. The reduction in migration brought by the Biden administration’s asylum rule has bottomed out, with Border Patrol apprehensions remaining relatively stable since July.
Furthermore, the daily average of migration through Honduras and Panama’s Darién Gap has inched upward since August 2024, driven in part by an increase in migrants leaving Venezuela after the country’s disputed elections.
Shifts in Post-Pandemic Migration Patterns
Since the end of Title 42, the geography of migration has undergone rapid changes. The U.S.-Mexico border’s nine sectors have seen shifting patterns, with different areas leading in migrant apprehensions.
In the pre-pandemic era, San Diego, California was the top destination from 1973 to 1997, followed by Tucson, Arizona from 1998 to 2012, and Rio Grande Valley, Texas from 2013 to December 2021. However, after the pandemic, the pattern changed dramatically.
Since 2022, the identity of the number-one sector has changed every few months, with either Tucson or San Diego leading in migrant apprehensions. This represents some westward movement in migration, as Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, Del Rio, and El Paso sectors had been in the lead earlier in the post-pandemic period.
However, it is essential to note that the Texas state government’s “Operation Lone Star” border crackdown has not deterred migration to Texas. In fact, since December 2023, migrant apprehensions have declined by 78 percent along the U.S.-Mexico border, with Texas and Arizona leading the four border states in this decline.
Migrant Deaths: A Continuing Concern
While migrant deaths may have decreased overall, the number of deaths as a proportion of the migrant population has not. According to CBP, southwest border deaths were down 30 percent compared to the previous fiscal year.
However, the official count of migrant remains surpassed 10,000 for this century in 2024, with Border Patrol recovering 560 remains of migrants in fiscal 2024 (as of September). The number of deaths as a proportion of the overall migrant population has remained similar to past years.
Fentanyl Seizures: A Decline
Fentanyl seizures dropped for the first time since the drug began appearing. CBP seized 21,148 pounds of fentanyl in 2024, down from 26,718 pounds in 2023 (-26%). The reduction is not clear why it happened, but possible reasons include shifting patterns in Mexican organized crime.
Conclusion
The decline in migrants arriving at the border may have decreased the salience of border security and migration in the U.S. election campaign. However, this drop is a result of limiting persecuted and threatened people’s ability to seek protection at the U.S.-Mexico border, which is unlikely to be long-lasting.
A better policy would strengthen well-managed legal migration pathways as part of an overall immigration reform that reduces pressure on the border. This should involve implementation by border management professionals held accountable for human rights violations, accompanied by a diplomatic and foreign assistance strategy addressing factors causing people to flee.
Source: Wola
