Round 2 in the Trump vs. Mexico matchup looks ominous for Mexico as it faces another Donald Trump presidency with a new president at its helm – leftist ideologue Claudia Sheinbaum. How will she handle his threats on issues like trade and migrants?
Mexico has extensive experience as a target of Trump’s rhetoric, including threats to close the border, impose tariffs, and even send U.S. forces to fight Mexican drug cartels if the country doesn’t stem the flow of migrants and drugs.
The impact of mass deportations of migrants who are in the U.S. illegally on remittances – money sent home by migrants – could be significant, as these have become one of Mexico’s main sources of income.
However, circumstances have changed since the first round, and not necessarily for the better. Today, Mexico has a new president with a different approach to politics, and Trump is not known for handling such relations well.
In 2019, Mexico’s then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was a charismatic leader who seemed to understand Trump, as both had a transactional view of politics. The two formed a chummy relationship based on mutual interests.
However, Sheinbaum grew up in a family of leftist activists and gained her political experience in radical university student movements. “Claudia has a different approach to politics,” said Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2018 to 2021. “She is not afraid to take on the drug cartels and will not hesitate to confront them.”
The analysis suggests that Trump’s biggest policy concerns – restoring U.S. jobs and the increasing rivalry with China – also run through Mexico. U.S. and foreign automakers have set up dozens of plants in Mexico, and some worry that Chinese companies could do the same to take advantage of existing trade rules to export Chinese cars or auto parts to the United States.
It’s worth noting that Sheinbaum has pushed through López Obrador’s policies aimed at eliminating independent regulatory and oversight bodies, which the U.S. government says could reduce the independence of the judiciary, both of which are required under the USMCA trade agreement.
“If they go ahead with the elimination of independent regulators and autonomous bodies, that’s going to be a further violation of the USMCA,” said Martha Bárcena.
The analysis concludes that while efforts to jointly combat the illegal drug trade have been encouraging, it remains to see how far Trump might go in his demands for Mexico. “I do think that he will talk loudly and carry a big stick,” said Sarukhan.
Source: The Philadelphia Inquirer
