“Mexico has achieved a remarkable milestone by surpassing $400 billion in two-way trade with the United States faster than any other nation in history. What’s even more significant is that Mexico is on the brink of a “trade trifecta,” leading the US in total trade, total exports, and total imports—a feat it has never accomplished before.
However, this achievement occurs against the backdrop of intense scrutiny. Mexico faces challenges related to illegal border crossings by millions of foreigners and the impact of toxic drug fentanyl, which has caused numerous overdose deaths. Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female president, now holds office, while Vice President Kamala Harris is in a close race with former President Donald Trump in the United States.
While neither Sheinbaum nor Harris is overtly pro-free trade due to their past politics, both are likely to avoid measures that harm the flow of two-way trade. The total trade between the two countries reached a record $415.38 billion through June.
As for Trump, who was not a proponent of free trade, his actions remain less predictable. He previously threatened tariffs on US imports and imposed severe ones on China during his tenure. Additionally, he has once again raised the possibility of closing the US-Mexico border to curb illegal entries.
Considering this complex landscape, Mexico should be a priority for the incoming US president, whether it’s Harris or Trump. Alongside China’s ambitions in Asia, the Middle East conflicts, and Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Mexico represents one of the critical “hot spots.”
Although Mexico currently doesn’t lead in US exports, it ranks first in total US trade and total imports through June, as it did for the full year of 2023. It’s also close to surpassing Canada in exports, trailing by only 5.78% based on the most recent data available.
Canada has held the top export position since 1992, but this year’s gap between the two countries has fallen below 10%. This difference—now less than half of what it was four years ago—suggests that Mexico could potentially take the lead sometime in 2025.
Mexico’s status as the top US trade partner solidified this year, with a $19.16 billion increase in total trade—the highest among any US trade partner worldwide. In contrast, Canada saw a $4.49 billion decrease, and China experienced a $6.21 billion decrease. These three nations consistently account for over 40% of all US trade among more than 200 trade partners.
Regarding imports, Mexico claimed the top spot on an annual basis just last year, displacing China. China faced challenges due to harsh tariffs imposed by Trump and continued by President Biden.”
It was in 2019 that Mexico was the top-ranked U.S. total trade partner — combining exports and imports — for the first time, though it ranked behind Canada for exports and China for imports that year.
The only other nation to have every ranked first for exports, imports and total trade is Canada, which last did so 14 years ago.
Source: Forbes
