It is important that AMLO recovers soon to play a decisive role in the inevitable adaptation of his historical project to the new Mexican and global normality,
1. The contagion of AMLO: symbol of post-4T
The contagion of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador with the Covid-19 virus publicly symbolizes that Mexico is already in the Post-4T stage. It is a symbolic parameter because the actual process of transmutation of the Fourth Transformation dates back to the same electoral year 2018. The novelty of 2021 is that the viral contagion of the president – and the de facto (economic) vice president Carlos Slim – reveals to the common citizen the seriousness of the current crisis and the fragility of the project: in particular, the problem of the viability, continuity, and leadership of the historic project, which AMLO built.
The infection of the president – which in light of his anti-scientific stance on the epidemic was only a matter of time – is, in a word, only the perceptible symbolic representation that the country is in the new configuration of the Fourth Transformation of Mexico: the Post-4T or 4T-2.0 stage. This new reality, the New Normal, represents an existential problem of adaptation for the Nation and its main decision-makers. Even so, it is not present in the public discussion of the country.
2. Four forces originated 4T-2.0
They were four vectors of power that transformed the original project of the Fourth Transformation and generated the New Normal that will determine the future of the country and the president.
1. AMLO’s strategic decision to substitute the social force behind the electoral victory –the 30.5 million wills that voted for him and the national change– with a statist driving force. The destruction of Morena was the momentous result of that decision.
2. The emergence of the Covid pandemic, which derailed the process of construction of the 4T devised by the president, and to which the government never found the scientific response necessary to control it, despite the successful public health algorithms developed early by China (Zhōngguó kàng yì qī dà zhìhuì de suànfǎ –中国 抗疫 七大 智慧 的 算法), Vietnam and other countries. If the uncertainty about the security protocol to be followed, including the stupidities pronounced by the WHO, could have been understandable until April 2020, as of that date there was no longer any scientific justification to remain in Boris’s toxic cohort Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump.
3. The idea of compressing two six-year terms into one to achieve the great transformations proposed was unfeasible. No one can compress time, because it is an objective vector of reality that expresses a relationship between space and movement. The impetus to break down stages to solve the enormous challenges of the transformation, generated a contradictory governance model: on the one hand, excessively centralized and, on the other, of micro-retail management. A model that is not optimal in a heterogeneous country of 130 million citizens with an uncontrolled pandemic, without existing strategic planning systems, and with adverse objective conditions.
4. The president’s decision not to turn the huge mass transitional movement into a powerful multi-class party with a national vanguard leadership, but to replace it with a Stalinist machine made up of servants of the nation-welfare programs-superdelegates as governors prospects and partisan control of Congress, had a high political price: it dissipated the vital energy and hope of the movement, triggered the entropy in Morena, orphaned many enthusiastic cadres, atrophied the power of pro-change social networks and delivered, as we know today, the middle classes to the opposition.
3. The 4T and social networks
The organic articulation between the National Palaces and the social classes of global society passes, today, through two types of electronic interfaces: the dominant media or Mainstream Media (MSM), particularly television, and the digital communication platforms known as “ social networks ”(facebook, youtube, twitter, etc.). Both systems have a close dialectical relationship, a fact for which it is utopian to want to regulate one without regulating the other.
The relationship between MSM and social media is dialectical, but the dominant pole is the MSM, who controls the essential sources of information and ideology, together with the States. Capitalist corporations (MSM) and political classes (States) are the main generators of the world vision ( Weltanschauung ) of the citizens, while the social media essentially reproduce the dominant ideas, elaborated by the intellectuals at the service of power: editorialists, presenters (anchors), correspondents and “experts” from corporate television stations.
4. 4T-2.0 and social networks
The dilemma of 4T-2.0 in Mexico is that it has no real support from any dominant media conglomerate, as enjoyed, for example, by the Argentine oligarchy with Clarín, the Brazilian one with Rede or Globo, or Trump with Fox News. Their influence on social media is consequently very limited. Mexican public television stations (Channels 11, 22, UNAM, etc.) do not offer a counterweight. For reasons more than obvious, few people see them. Notimex, the State News Agency (!) has been stopped for a year, and nobody in the State seems to care. The pros and cons of “las mañaneras”, AMLO morning press conferences, in turn, are too well known to repeat here. And, despite having a budget of almost one billion pesos (sic) for cadre training in 2019, nothing was formed, in a unique moment of change yearned for by tens of millions of citizens and a few months after a crucial election.
5. The 4T, just a memory
The few parameters mentioned illustrating that the original Fourth Transformation project ceased to exist a long time ago. Without cadres, without a party, without mystique, without strategic direction and now, with the hegemonic leader affected by the virus, it would be not very serious and contrary to objective truth to pretend that the 4T narrative is still valid with great validity and denotation, that characterized it in 2018. In light of the empirical facts, the qualitative transmutation of the original project is undeniable. In other words, the country is already living in the 4T-2.0 phase. That is, in the post-4T era.
6. The new reality
The conditions for making national politics, alliances, narratives for the middle and popular classes, have qualitatively changed, not even mentioning the change of the US government towards a formal monroeist modality different from that of Donald Trump’s right-wing Bonapartism (populism), and the conversion of the Republican Party into a neo-fascist party, whose nomenclature (senators/deputies) 85% claims a presidential right to carry out coups with impunity and ignore the electoral system. It claims, in a nutshell, the right to open dictatorship, as Maduro established it in Venezuela.
For Mexico, it is obvious that, regardless of the evolution of the president’s convalescence, the historical model of the 4T is no longer more than a nostalgic memory. To understand national options and available optimization algorithms, it is therefore vitally important to generate transformative awareness of the present moment on the basis of objective truth. That is, to seek the truth in the facts through rigor and scientific truth, to block the advance of forces that seek to take advantage of the delicate situation of the Homeland and the growing danger of implosion of the original historical project of the 4T for their particular interests.
8. Mexico in the face of the Latin American development spiral
We hope that the president will soon recover from the effects of the epidemic because of the governance model he installed, his national role is comparable to that of the center of gravity in a galaxy. When that center of masses collapses, the system fragments and enters a chaotic phase, whose evolution is difficult to foresee and with probably dire consequences for the population and the country.
That is why it is necessary to prevent Mexico from falling into the spiral of continental failure of the developmental social democracy, as happened with Kirchnerism in Argentina, Chavismo in Venezuela, Lula’s “workerism” in Brazil, Correísmo in Ecuador, and Evarísmo in Bolivia.
9. The battlefield of 4T-2.0
This is the battlefield for the post-4T phase. It would be extremely important for the president to recover soon to play a decisive role in the inevitable adaptation of his historic project to the new Mexican and global normality, to neutralize as far as possible the negative cumulative consequences of the four vectors of power. mentioned.
If this does not happen, we will pay the price of the law of evolution, which Charles Darwin explained with brutal clarity: survival is only a real option for those who know how to adapt to new environmental conditions. In our case, to the reality of the Post-4T phase.